Vanguard's Growth ETF Has Returned About 18% a Year for a Decade. I'd Plan on Much Less Through 2030.

Vanguard's Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) has delivered impressive 18% annual returns over the past decade, but analyst Daniel Sparks forecasts significantly lower returns of around 10% annually through 2030. Despite strong earnings growth from top holdings like Nvidia, Apple, and Alphabet, the fund's elevated valuation at 37x earnings and slowing growth rates suggest a $10,000 investment today could reach approximately $15,000 by end of 2030, assuming earnings grow 15% annually and the P/E ratio compresses to 30x.