Uh-Oh! The Probability of an FOMC Rate Hike Within the Next Year Is Soaring.

Rising inflation driven by the Iran war's energy supply disruption has pushed U.S. inflation to three-year highs. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC are increasingly likely to implement rate hikes within the next year, reversing earlier expectations for rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool shows growing probability of rate hikes by late 2026/early 2027, which could pressure the stock market.