This Is SpaceX's Biggest Risk, and It's Not What You Think

SpaceX's biggest risk is its aggressive AI infrastructure expansion plans, which could cost $500 billion to add 10 gigawatts of compute capacity in 2027. While current returns are strong due to compute scarcity, increased supply from competitors could weaken economics. Additionally, SpaceX's minimal operating cash flow compared to cloud giants means it must raise substantial debt or equity, and the short GPU lifespan creates a permanent spending treadmill that could pressure margins when revenue growth plateaus.