There's a 74% Chance SpaceX and Tesla Will Merge by May 2027, According to Kalshi -- but 2 Negatives Don't Make a Positive on Wall Street

Prediction market Kalshi assigns a 74% probability that SpaceX and Tesla will merge by May 2027, fueled by Elon Musk's comments about increasing overlap between the companies during Tesla's earnings call. However, analysts argue a merger would be problematic: SpaceX lacks profitability and is capital-intensive, while Tesla's profits rely heavily on non-sustainable sources like regulatory credits. Combining the two would expose unfulfilled promises baked into both valuations.