The Stock Market Has Done This Only 2 Times Since 1871 — and Both Times Ended Badly. Could Trump’s Policies Raise the Risk of Another Market Meltdown?

The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 41, its highest level since the dot-com bubble peak, occurring only twice before in 155 years—both times preceding major market downturns. Trump's tariff policies, military actions driving oil prices higher, and Treasury bond strategies are raising inflation concerns and increasing the odds of Fed rate hikes. However, strong corporate earnings growth and different market dynamics may mitigate historical patterns of decline.