The S&P 500 Returned 10% in the First Half of 2026. This Is Good News for What History Says Is Coming Next.

The S&P 500 gained 9.6% in the first half of 2026, marking the 12th time since 1990 that the index has returned at least 9% in the first six months. Historical data shows that in all 11 previous instances, the S&P 500 posted positive returns in the second half as well, with a median return of 9.8%. Strong earnings growth forecasts (24% in 2026, 17% in 2027) support optimism, though risks from inflation, geopolitics, and potential Fed rate hikes remain.