The Odds of an Oct. 28 Fed Rate Hike Are Soaring, and President Donald Trump Is, in Part, to Blame

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has initiated the fourth rate-hiking cycle of the 21st century, with odds of an October 28 rate hike jumping from 6.6% to 57.6% as of mid-September. President Trump's tariff policies and military action against Iran are driving elevated inflation, while AI infrastructure buildout and surging long-duration Treasury yields are also pressuring the Fed to continue raising rates.