The Midterms Are Over. Here's What Chip Stocks Did in the Year After Each of the Last 8.

Chip stocks have historically risen in the year following midterm elections, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index gaining an average of 42% across the past eight cycles. However, 2026 presents a different scenario: the index entered Election Day up 46% from a year prior—the strongest pre-midterm performance on record. The author suggests this strong pre-election rally may limit future gains, potentially resulting in more modest returns similar to the quieter post-midterm years of 2010 and 2014, rather than repeating the typical 40%-plus average gains.