The $760 Billion AI Risk That Nobody Is Talking About. But Should.

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are expected to spend $760 billion on AI infrastructure capex in 2026, an 80% increase from 2025. While AI demand is real and supported by customer commitments, investors should question whether this massive spending will generate attractive returns long-term. The risk lies in potential overcapacity if AI becomes more efficient, computing costs drop, or demand doesn't materialize as expected—similar to previous technology cycles.