The 10-Year Treasury Pays 5.2%. The S&P 500 Only Needs 4% Earnings Growth to Keep Up.

With 10-year Treasury yields at 5.23% (highest since 2007), the article compares this risk-free return against S&P 500 index fund investments. The S&P 500 needs only 4% annual earnings growth to match the Treasury's return over a decade, a threshold historically met in 80% of 10-year periods since 1950. While the Treasury offers immediate income, the index fund's earnings can compound long-term, making it preferable for investors with longer time horizons, though valuation multiples pose a key risk.