SpaceX Stock Has Stumbled Since Its IPO. History Says It Could Be Up by This Much in 1 Year.

SpaceX stock, which opened at $150 over a month ago, is now trading below that level. Based on 26 years of historical IPO data, large IPOs typically gain only 3.5-4% in their first year, suggesting SpaceX shares could reach around $156 within 11 months. The company faces headwinds including unprofitability, massive capital expenditures ($27 billion in 2025), risky bets on Starship rocket technology, and an unproven orbital AI data center plan. Analysts' price targets range from $300-$800, but historical trends suggest more modest gains.