SpaceX Just Reported Earnings. Here's What History Says Happens Next.

SpaceX reported strong Q2 earnings with 92% revenue growth to $7.8B, driven by Starlink's $4.3B revenue and AI infrastructure's 247% growth to $2.6B. However, the company faces significant operating losses of $542M and massive $16B capex spending in AI. While connectivity is profitable, the AI segment remains unproven at scale. At a P/S ratio of 73, SpaceX's $1.4T valuation embeds lofty assumptions. Historically, mega-IPOs see 42-55% drawdowns in their first year, and analysts caution that further volatility is likely unless SpaceX demonstrates sustained profitability and capital efficiency.