SpaceX IPO: Why History Suggests Retail Will Provide Exit Liquidity Again

SpaceX's highly anticipated $1.75 trillion IPO is 4x oversubscribed, but the article warns retail investors to exercise caution based on historical IPO patterns. Despite Musk's track record and SpaceX's genuine achievements, late-breaking material disclosures (Google Cloud GPU deal, financial restatements, and dilution details) create information asymmetry favoring institutions. The article predicts a classic IPO trajectory: initial pop driven by FOMO, followed by a 40-60%+ retracement as hype unwinds, similar to Meta's 2012 IPO pattern, before potential long-term recovery if Starship and Starlink deliver.