S&P 500 Earnings Strength Puts Valuations to the Test

S&P 500 earnings are growing significantly faster than the index itself, with Q1 and Q2 2026 EPS growth at 24.4% year-over-year while the S&P 500 was up only 10% YTD through Q2 2026. The forward 4-quarter earnings estimate increased 5% sequentially to $371.04, pushing the earnings yield to 4.97%. The author notes this earnings strength is unusual and unsustainable, comparing it to the late 1990s bull market. However, the author's 2026 forecast has underperformed due to incorrect predictions on S&P 500 returns and Fed policy, particularly impacting bank holdings.