Prediction: SpaceX Will Not Cancel the Falcon 9 in 2028

Despite Elon Musk's stated intention to retire Falcon 9 by 2028 in favor of Starship, analyst Rich Smith argues this is unlikely. A projected 300-rocket launch deficit through 2030 represents approximately $22.2 billion in potential revenue that SpaceX would forgo. Given Musk's historical focus on cost recovery and market opportunities, Smith predicts SpaceX will continue operating Falcon 9 alongside Starship to capture this untapped market demand.