Oracle Stock Is 54% Below Its High. The Last Time It Fell That Far, Getting Back Took More Than a Decade.

Oracle stock has fallen 54% from its record high of $345.72, similar to its 83% decline during the dot-com bubble that took 17 years to recover from. However, the current situation differs significantly: Oracle's business is strong with 17% revenue growth and 77% cloud infrastructure growth, but the company is spending heavily on AI infrastructure with capital expenditures jumping 162% to $55.7 billion, resulting in negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion. Unlike the 2000 peak when the stock traded at over 100x earnings, Oracle now trades at approximately 20x forward earnings, making it less overvalued but still carrying risk if AI demand cools.