Nvidia Stock Can Top $400 in 5 Years If One Assumption Holds Up

Nvidia stock could reach $400 within five years (a 75% gain from $229) if earnings hold around fiscal 2028 levels. The analyst projects $15.50 EPS by fiscal 2028 based on 70% revenue growth, requiring only modest 5-6% annual earnings growth thereafter at a 20x P/E valuation. However, the forecast depends critically on avoiding a chip downturn, as Nvidia has experienced 55% net income drops before and faces concentration risk with hyperscalers accounting for $49B of $89B in data center revenue.