Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy Pill Turns Pricing Pain Into a Volume Bet

Novo Nordisk's stock has collapsed 67% from its June 2024 peak to the mid-$40s due to U.S. pricing pressures, competition, and its own decision to price the Wegovy pill at just $149/month as a volume-over-price strategy. While Q1 results showed 22% obesity-care growth and the company raised guidance, the market remains skeptical about whether the pricing power will recover. The stock trades near multi-year lows with scattered analyst targets ranging from $40 to $175, reflecting fundamental disagreement on the turnaround thesis. Management's DKK 15 billion buyback signals conviction, but Eli Lilly's competitive advantage and policy headwinds continue to weigh on sentiment.