Nike’s $40 Floor Reflects Deep Value but Not Yet a Confirmed Recovery

Nike rebounded 8% off its $40 decade-low after Q4 earnings, but the beat was largely driven by a one-time $986 million tariff refund. While wholesale growth and margin discipline show promise under CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround strategy, the stock faces headwinds from eight consecutive quarters of Greater China declines and a forward P/E of 25.4 on flat guidance. The stock is range-bound between $40 support and $47-$52 resistance, with the turnaround execution determining whether the recovery is genuine or a dead-cat bounce.