Nebius Stock: The Bull Case, the Bear Case, and My Call Before Nov. 12

Nebius Group stock has fallen 47% from its June peak to around $152. The bull case rests on management's target of $7-9 billion annualized run-rate revenue by year-end 2026 (up from $3 billion in June), with the company demonstrating strong growth momentum. However, the bear case highlights massive capital expenditure needs ($20-25 billion in 2026) requiring significant external funding, customer concentration risk (3 customers = 59% of revenue), and reliance on share dilution and debt. The analyst recommends waiting for Q3 results on Nov. 12 to assess if the company remains on track for its targets before making an investment decision.