MP Materials Has Collapsed 60% From Its Highs. Here's Why I'm Not Buying (Yet).

MP Materials stock has declined 60% from its $100 peak to $40, despite analyst price targets around $71. While the company benefits from a Pentagon price floor agreement guaranteeing $110/kg for NdPr through 2035, the author remains cautious because over 60% of MP's adjusted EBITDA currently depends on government support. The author wants to see evidence that MP's underlying business can generate substantial profits independently before investing.