History Shows IPO Stocks Plunge Up to 48% Within 1 Year of Going Public. Here's Why SpaceX Could Defy the Odds in 2027.

While IPO stocks historically experience median drawdowns of up to 48% in their first year, SpaceX could defy this trend due to its diversified business model. The company's growth engines include Starlink (13.6M subscribers, 89% YoY growth), AI infrastructure contracts worth billions (including $120.5B with Anthropic and $11B annualized with Alphabet), and a potential merger with Tesla. However, investors should remain disciplined about valuation and the company's ability to convert revenue into free cash flow.