Here's the Biggest Risk Facing SpaceX (Hint: It's Not Another Failed Starship Launch)

While SpaceX's Starship development is progressing despite recent test setbacks, the company faces a significant capital challenge. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate SpaceX will need to raise approximately $700 billion over the next decade to scale its Starlink and data center businesses, with average annual cash burn of $84 billion between 2027-2034. The company is not expected to achieve positive free cash flow until 2035. Rising interest rates and competition for capital from other tech companies could force SpaceX to either issue dilutive equity, take on expensive debt, or slow growth investments—all scenarios that pose risks to shareholders.