Can Post Holdings' Foodservice Growth Counter Retail Headwinds?

Post Holdings (POST) exceeded third-quarter expectations with stronger-than-anticipated Foodservice performance, which has a normalized EBITDA run rate of ~$500 million. The company projects fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA to remain near $1.48 billion, with Foodservice growth offsetting retail business pressures from inflation and volume declines. However, retail segments face headwinds including expected 2.5% cereal volume decline and underperforming dry dog food.