AI ROI Debate Misses the Value of Owning Critical Infrastructure

The article argues that the AI infrastructure buildout debate should focus less on immediate ROI and more on the strategic value of owning critical infrastructure. Global AI capex is projected at $5.5 trillion through 2030, with hyperscaler spending reaching $650-697 billion in 2026. Hyperscalers are generating returns today while funding future layers, and access to capital is becoming a competitive moat. The real ROI question belongs to model-layer companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, which mirror early-stage cloud players. The winners will be companies with the cheapest path to funding the next wave, not necessarily those with the best technology.