After Soaring Nearly 90% Thus Far in 2026, Is Moderna's Stock Still a Buy?

Moderna's stock has surged nearly 90% in 2026, driven by positive FDA news about its flu vaccine mRNA-1010 in June. However, the rally appears unjustified as the vaccine is unlikely to generate significant revenue ($1B by 2028) and the company faces fundamental challenges including $3.4B in operating losses over the trailing 12 months, declining revenue, and dependence on COVID vaccine sales. With a $20B+ market cap and limited compelling growth catalysts beyond the experimental cancer vaccine mRNA-4157, the stock appears overvalued for its risk profile.