A Simple Rule for the Semiconductor ETF: Buy After a 15% Drop. Here's How It Has Done Since 2012.

An analysis of a simple trading rule for the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) shows that buying after a 15% drop from record highs has resulted in gains one year later in 7 out of 8 cases since 2012, with a median gain of 29%. However, the rule's success appears largely attributable to the fund's overall upward trend rather than the timing strategy itself. The only loss occurred in 2022 during a significant chip industry slowdown, though current semiconductor demand appears healthier.