1 Analyst Puts the Odds of a Tesla and SpaceX Merger at 80%. Here's What That Would Mean for Tesla Investors.

Following SpaceX's record $1.8 trillion IPO in June 2026, speculation has resurfaced about a potential merger with Tesla. While one analyst estimates an 80% probability, betting markets suggest only 25-40% odds. A combined entity would be worth over $3 trillion, but structural challenges exist: Musk controls SpaceX outright but owns only ~20% of Tesla, creating governance complications. Tesla's already-expensive valuation (370x earnings) may not benefit from adding SpaceX's unproven, money-losing ventures. Experts advise investors to focus on fundamentals rather than merger speculation.